0810.15
10:15:30
Fuzzy math
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Or, why is this still being depicted as a close presidential race?
So there’s several of these presidential poll aggregator websites that figure out electoral vote maps from all available state-level polling data. I like these better than the main news websites, because, well, uh, it’s an aggregator, and that’s like web 2.0 or something. Plus I hate flash-based news websites.
Anyhow, since I was home last weekend and heard news on the tv for once, I was somewhat confused by this portrayal that the election was really close! I had thought for sure from the way McCain had been campaigning, and from the content of the McCain/RNC ads, that he had fallen behind significantly.
Turns out I’m right.
So, I wanted to create some aggregation of my own. I went to four of those aforementioned websites that seem to have a positive name recognition and track record, and copied down the electoral vote counts you see below. But! You won’t see these spreads on their websites. I have deliberately narrowed the gap between McCain and Obama by placing the totals of all states placed in the categories of “toss up” or “weakly in Obama’s favor” in the McCain tally. McCain still loses by over 30 EV in all four data sets!
So there’s several of these presidential poll aggregator websites that figure out electoral vote maps from all available state-level polling data. I like these better than the main news websites, because, well, uh, it’s an aggregator, and that’s like web 2.0 or something. Plus I hate flash-based news websites.
Anyhow, since I was home last weekend and heard news on the tv for once, I was somewhat confused by this portrayal that the election was really close! I had thought for sure from the way McCain had been campaigning, and from the content of the McCain/RNC ads, that he had fallen behind significantly.
Turns out I’m right.
So, I wanted to create some aggregation of my own. I went to four of those aforementioned websites that seem to have a positive name recognition and track record, and copied down the electoral vote counts you see below. But! You won’t see these spreads on their websites. I have deliberately narrowed the gap between McCain and Obama by placing the totals of all states placed in the categories of “toss up” or “weakly in Obama’s favor” in the McCain tally. McCain still loses by over 30 EV in all four data sets!
286 Obama 252 McCain realclearpolitics.com (McCain = McCain + toss-up) 307 Obama 231 McCain electionprojection.com (McCain = McCain + Weak Obama) 313 Obama 225 McCain electoral-vote.com (McCain = Barely Dem + GOP) 320 Obama 218 McCain pollster.com (McCain = McCain + toss-up)If tonight’s debate is a “game-changer” I feel it is safe to assume that only the states that are not already moderately-to-strongly in favor of a candidate will have a change of preference. So, even if McCain says “my friends” enough to get every state weakly leaning towards Obama to join the Straight Talk Express (unless if your name is Sarah Palin, then it’s the rambling, confused talk express), he’s still going to lose, big time.
3 Comments
GMT-0500 13:19:17 0810.15 (Wed)
I look forward to a landslide, either way (though I’m not voting for either). I just don’t want 4 more years of complaints about misbehaviour and malfunctions at the voting locations discounting this or that many thousand votes which would have changed the state which would have blah blah blah….
GMT-0500 21:37:33 0811.1 (Sat)
[…] on the methodology outlined previously, the American Politics unit at Conrad Magazine in partnership with iaatb.net is releasing some […]
GMT-0500 22:24:47 0811.3 (Mon)
[…] On the eve of the election, the American Politics unit at Conrad Magazine in partnership with iaatb.net is releasing its final election analysis. For those that don’t already know, here is the methodology: […]