0811.1
21:37:28
Fuzzy Charts: Saturday
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based on the methodology outlined previously, the American Politics unit at Conrad Magazine in partnership with iaatb.net is releasing some charts to stare at:
All of the states (“weak dem” or equivalent) that I have rebiased towards McCain are in pink. Notable here, I think, are that neither Ohio nor Pennsylvania are given as close enough in order for my methodology to convert them to McCain votes. I’ll post a new one on Monday to see if this changes. Also, the rejiggered models have moved away from the 286-252 that they were when I wrote about them a few days ago.
Realclearpolitics.com: Obama 325-213
Pollster.com: Obama 311-227
Electoral-vote.com: Obama 311-227
Election-projection.com: Obama 306-232
4 Comments
GMT-0500 09:07:09 0811.2 (Sun)
I lament letting my subscription to Conrad Magazine expire.
It’d be wild to see AR, IN and VA go blue. The Republicans would be floored!
I wouldn’t be surprised if we even saw deep south states like Louisiana or Alabama surprise us and go blue or only marginally red, given their demographics. Black people are registering for the first time and voting in huge numbers, and I don’t suppose it’s because McCain is energizing them.
GMT-0500 11:47:22 0811.2 (Sun)
I’m surprised to see both North Carolina and Florida going red. The way I see it, it’s 50/50 which way either state winds up going, so the best approach would be to throw one in the blue pile and the other into the red pile to balance things out. I’m especially surprised to see North Carolina being red while Virginia is consistently depicted as blue, because (unless I’m mistaken, and maybe I am, but) I had thought that North Carolina had been depicted as “leaning Obama” by most pundits whereas Virginia had been depicted as a sometimes-“leaning Obama” and a sometimes-“toss-up” state, i.e. if you’re going to give NC to the GOP why not VA too?
Here’s where I stand.
GMT-0500 11:49:01 0811.2 (Sun)
I forgot to mention, I see that a lot of pundits are saying this now (today), but up until Friday night I had thought that NC had been colored a light shade of blue as had Virginia. Now I see that everyone’s coloring it in yellow (lol yellow-bellies!) which seems to be the pundits’ color-of-choice for toss-up states.
GMT-0500 15:58:49 0811.2 (Sun)
Did anyone else catch SNL’s lampooning of Keith Olbermann last night? Pretty funny stuff.